2011 SOTU Word Cloud

A quick look before tonight's speech, here is a word cloud of its most common words....



I suppose it is not a surprise that 3 of the most used words are "new", "American", and "jobs".

I am sure there has to be a message hidden in there somewhere.....

[h/t to the ever-handy Wordle]

And So The Vote Buying Begins....

According to the WaPo via the ever-watchful Corner, the Obama Administration will begin to attempt to buy off American voters before the upcoming election.

Obama Administration Considering Payroll Tax Holiday
September 2, 2010 5:31 P.M.
By Daniel Foster

The White House economic team is reportedly considering pushing for a second stimulus comprised of “tax breaks” for businesses — including a possible $300 billion payroll tax holiday, and a $100 billion extension of an R&D tax credit.

The Washington Post reports:

"The staff-level discussions are in preliminary stages. But with the unemployment rate expected to rise again in new jobs numbers due out Friday, such a move could serve both to spur hiring and to combat Republican charges that Obama’s tax policies would hurt small businesses.

More spending on infrastructure – particularly transportation projects – is also under discussion, sources said. But a person familiar with the talks said it would be easier for a package consisting purely of tax cuts to “avoid the stain of a ‘bailout’ or ‘stimulus’ label.”

The proposals could be rolled out as early as next week.

That sounds great if you ask me and my paycheck, but it won't change my vote. And I am betting it won't change a whole lot of other votes as well. In fact I would venture to say that it could drive more voters away, as those who are on the fence may well see it for the attempted bribe that it is.

Additionally, the WaPo offers some extremely flawed analysis by saying "such a move could serve...to spur hiring..." Really? They think that a temporary tax holiday will cause employers to hire permanent employees?? Once the holiday is over, they would have to start paying the taxes again, one of the reasons that they wouldn't have hired those people in the first place.

Tax holidays are good at spurring one-time transactions (purchasing school clothes, TVs, clunkers, etc), but will probably have limited effect on recurring transactions (e.g. payrolls).

Much like 'Cash for Clunkers' and 'First Time Homebuyers' tax credits before it, this proposed temporary tax holiday will most likely have temporary effect...and a bad aftertaste when it is all over.

But then again, this proposal isn't about improving the economy, it is about sustaining the Democratic Party...

This Isn't Working - Pt 3

The Pillage of the Future by the Present

City Journal is carrying a good read on the current addiction of the 'modern democratic state' to Keynesian-driven indebtedness, not from the normal American punditry, but in the context of the evolution of European states .

The thesis of German Peter Sloterdijk reminds us that we Americans are not alone when worried about our current 'financial unsustainability'.

The Grasping Hand
The modern democratic state pillages its productive citizens

[...]

The modern democratic state gradually transformed into the debtor state, within the space of a century metastasizing into a colossal monster—one that breathes and spits out money.

[...]

What is new is the gargantuan scale of public debt. Mortgaging, insolvency, monetary reform, or inflation—no matter, the next great expropriations are under way. Today, the state’s grasping hand even reaches into the pockets of generations unborn. We have already written the title of the next chapter of our history: “The pillage of the future by the present.”

Read the whole thing...

Blowing Cash in Vegas v. Blowing Cash in DC

The President is out with his latest economic advice:

"When times are tough, you tighten your belts," the president said.

Well said Mr President.

"You don't go buying a boat when you can barely pay your mortgage...."

Oh, OK....that must be different than increasing next year's deficit by 36%, and expanding the deficit by an additional $2 Trillion over the next decade? Must be....

"You don't blow a bunch of cash on Vegas when you're trying to save for college."

Again, I guess that is different than all of our cash being blown in the city of Washington DC.

Geez, it has only been a year, but Las Vegas has been replaced by DC as the city with the biggest financial gambles.

Thanks for the economics lesson Professor Obama...I know Harry Reid appreciates it.

Foundation Repair

According to Peggy Noonan, the Obama Administration has a new program for us, called "The New Foundation".

Given the success of the so-called stimulus, I am sure that we will soon see these signs popping up in the DC area....

Of course, the Congress will then nationalize the foundation repair industry and we will start to see these signs popping up instead....

It is the circle of life....

Right Idea...Wrong Target

After a week of reality injection, you're getting warmer Mr. President, but you have chosen the wrong target for your "help".

Obama May Call for Freeze on Discretionary Spending

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- There is a “fighting chance” President Barack Obama will propose a freeze in most discretionary spending by the federal government in his State of the Union speech next week, Senator Evan Bayh, an Indiana Democrat, said.

Gee, the last time I checked, our Federal spending problem wasn't a discretionary spending problem....



And of course, whenever you hear a democrat calling for a freeze/reduction in 'discretionary spending', you know what that really means....



How about we look at all that entitlement spending....yeah, fat chance, right Mr. President?

Stimulus Subterfuge

Its all a Stimulus Subterfuge, a Recovery Ruse, a GDP Gimmick.

In other words, the 'Great Obama Recovery'® that was announced earlier in October by the White House is all hogwash, a hoax, a fraud...a lie.

Sure, the economy was announced to have grown by 3.5%. However, that has now been revised down (GDP numbers are often adjusted) to 2.8%. 'What's so bad about that?' you might ask. 'Isn't any positive growth a good thing?' Normally, but as the blogprof points out, the only thing making this a positive number, is Stimulus cash....

That "robust" 3.5% GDP growth rate in Q3 that the AP heralded as the end of the recession sans actual jobs? That just got reduced. A lot. As in down to 2.8% now. Even that is deceiving as consumer spending, which comprises 70% of the economy, declined 0.5% during the same period (Positive GDP Fraud! Consumer Spending DOWN 0.5%. GDP Up Because Of MASSIVE DEBT!). So how is it that the GDP increased in the 3rd quarter after consumer spending decreased? Well, that's got everything to do with the 'G' in the GDP - gross. That includes consumer spending, government spending, in fact all spending. So if the consumer spending is down, one way to artificially inflate the GDP number is to increase government spending with money that the government doesn't, by the way, have. In essence, the GDP number is positive due to increased debt! It's purchased on a government card that has no credit limit.

So Stimulus cash, which is created out of thin air and injected into the economy to unknown effect, makes up 118% of the GDP growth....

So what this really means is that we will be seeing increasing GDP growth for many quarters to come, and thus a White House trumpeting a full-throated recovery, just in time for the 2010 elections.

Since only 22% of the Stimulus had been spent by the end of October, that means we have over $600 Billion left to be entered into that 'Government Spending' column that blogprof tells us about. Thus, unless consumer spending craters, this glut of Govt Spending spread over many quarters will prop up the GDP numbers for those quarters. And as it will most surely do, the White House will point to the string of positive quarters, and how their actions have saved the economy, despite the fact that it is really a Potemkin Village of economic figures...

The only problem will be the ever expanding unemployment roles....and the largest spike in employment will be found in GOP political campaigns.

[Hat Tip: Instapundit]

SNL Does Better Analysis than the MSM

"As I listen to you, I am noticing that each of your plans to save money involves spending even more money. This does not inspire confidence...."



Classic.

Two thoughts - 1) Why does it take SNL to throw the BS flag on the administration's policies? Where is the MSM. Oh yeah, they are kissing Obama (what the whole video). 2) You can see how much cachè Obama has lost, even with the left-leaning SNL, when they have no problem crudely mocking Obama and even his wife.

Countering the Rise of an Epithet

In the newest edition of National Review [subscription required], Jay Nordlinger has a good interim retrospective on the 'teabagger' imbroglio in 'Rise of an Epithet'...

"To “teabag” or not to “teabag”: That is not the most pressing question of these times, but it is a question to consider. Routinely, conservative protesters in the “tea party” movement are called “teabaggers,” and those calling them that do not mean it in a nice way. Many conservatives are mulling what to do about this term: fight it, embrace it, what?"

I say fight it....and of course you may want to fight fire with fire. Because I am in the mood, I will ignore a normal tendency not to sink to the Lefties' level. If they want the discourse to utilize crass barnyard imagery to subtly insult one's opponent, so be it.

If those in this country who oppose larger government control, gangster government, higher taxes, and the general slide towards European socialism can be labeled as "Teabaggers", then the Democrats and lefties who are running the country can suffer a similar epithet.

From now on, in any public reference, the Democratic Party and its actions in running the Executive and Legislative branches of government should be referred to as...."The Donkey Show".

Washington, Tijuana....it doesn't matter. We are all getting screwed.....

Rep. Charlie Foxtrot (R) TX-52

It seems that people are now getting really snarky and declaring their candidacies for some of those non-existent Congressional districts revealed by recovery.gov to be receiving Stimulus $$.

Take Grant Bosse for example:

Republican activist and free market think-tanker Grant Bosse formally declared his candidacy today in New Hampshire’s 00th Congressional District after news that the Obama administration has attributed a majority of the state’s stimulus jobs to that non-existent district.

Good on ya Grant! But while that is all well and good, I am not sure why you are going to so much trouble to declare candidacy for an election that will never occur.

Since this is the case, I am going to simply declare myself the new Congressional Representative of the non-existent TX-52, based on the results of a non-existent election! Good folks like Grant Bosse are working way too hard at this....

So why did I pick TX-52 to be my new fiefdom? First, I am a Texas resident. And second, it received $8.9 million of Stimulus cash, and it has created "0" jobs. That sounds like the makings of a great slush fund to me!

Now where is my application for the 'Friends of Angelo' program???

[Hat Tip: Instapundit]

"We have been flim-flammed"

#tcot #hhrs #rs
Nothing like a Foghorn Leghorn quote to be apropos to government policy....

Unless of course Foghorn Leghorn is part of the federal government...

SEN. LEGHORN ANNOUNCES $14.7 MILLION FOR TEXAS; ‘YEE, HAW!’ HE ADDS

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE*

WASHINGTON – U.S. Sen. Foghorn J. Leghorn, D-State, announced Tuesday that he had won an extra $14.7 million in stimulating funds from the solicitous Obama Administration for the people of seven congressional districts in Texas.

“This funding will go for good,” the Senator said. “Why, son, 98 hardworking, taxpaying, aging, poor, honest, hungry, working-class, middle-class, undereducated, disadvantaged, undercounted, overlooked, underprivileged, overtaxed and uninsured constituents of my good friends and esteemed colleagues in the 52nd, 58th, 86th, 00th, 68th, 91st, and 85th Congressional Districts of Texas deserve every penny,” he added. “Yep, they can shore count on me. Vote Leghorn! Yee, haw!”

Go to Moe Lane and read the whole thing. The best satire is always rooted in the truth...

Now lets get back to Senator Leghorn...

"I'm just a loud-mouthed schnook."

10th Amendment as Guerrilla Street Art

Instapundit points out some "guerrilla street art" at Gateway Pundit, where someone has dared insult the emperor down in Houston....



However, squeaking out the win with extra points for original use of the Constitution as art via vandalism, is an anonymous reprobate in Georgia...



Hat Tip: Red State tweet

Great Town Hall Sign

#tcot #hhrs


What more needs to be said?

More good pics and a video from NRO's Mark Hemingway here.

The Best Ham Sandwich...Evah!!

#tcot #hhrs #wwrd
Forget the Reagan-era $1000 hammers and toilets seats, and you can even forget Obama's $100/lb Waygu beef.

We have a new winner when it comes to Government waste, and it might even go to your waist....

The Obama-approved $595,000/lb Frozen Ham!!!

Here is a little proof from the government's own website, Recovery.gov, before it goes down the memory hole:

[Click to enlarge]

I sure hope we aren't buying these in bulk. I think I can get a better deal at COSTCO....

UPDATE: HOLY SCHNIKIES! The hits keep coming....

$1,562,568 FOR 'MOZZARELLA CHEESE'
$5,708,260 FOR 'PROCESS CHEESE'

[Hat Tip: Drudge, he is the one who dug these up...]

UPDATE II: Welcome Instapundit readers!

States of Disrepair

We can learn lessons from state's failed 'Progressive' programs.

Most good conservative thinkers make the Federalist argument that we should strive to limit the power and reach of the federal government, and instead leave most matters to be handled by the individual states.

However, recent events might give many conservatives pause concerning this cornerstone philosophy, given that some states have been acting like teenagers who have been handed the keys to the liquor cabinet and family car on the same key chain.

Take for instance articles from today concerning three of the most prominent 'Blue' states.

New York - The Obsolete New York Model: Where a tax-eating majority votes itself a permanent income....Struggling under the accumulated burden of eight decades of “progressive” government, we New Yorkers can serve as a warning to our fellow Americans as President Obama, following the New Deal playbook, seeks to use the current financial crisis to provide a new rationale and legitimacy for the gargantuan machinery of the federal government.

California - Following Calif. Off A Green Cliff: Climate Change: A 2006 California law meant to lead the way on global warming looks like an economic disaster in the making. So far, Congress and Obama have ignored the warnings.

Massachusetts - Bay State Rationing: Health Care: Massachusetts' universal medical program is no longer universal. Coverage is being dropped for 30,000 because not enough money is around to pay for everyone. There's a lesson in this for Congress.

The running theme here is that these states have implemented unsustainable government largesse, and show us exactly what President Obama's proposed programs will bring us on a national scale. They are the cure that makes the disease worse.

Of course, one only need compare these examples to other states that have fared much better. To be parochial, I will trumpet my adopted home state....

Texas - Going Alamo: Why jobs and companies are flocking to a big small-government state. If you want to know where the future is headed, look where the people are going. And if you want to know where the people are going, check with U-Haul. Here's an interesting indicator, first noted by the legendary economist Arthur Laffer: Renting a 26-foot U-Haul truck to go from Austin to San Francisco this July would cost you about $900. Renting the same truck to go from San Francisco to Austin? About $3,000. In the great balance of supply and demand, California has a large supply of people who are demanding to move to Texas. There's a reason for this.

God help me if I ever get orders to PCS to California!

When Soothsayers Change their Spots

Both Campaign Spot and Instapundit highlight this great little piece of tut-tutting by Clintonista Robert Reich:

When Will The Recovery Begin? Never.
July 9, 2009, 5:02PM

The so-called "green shoots" of recovery are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed. On one side are the V-shapers who look back at prior recessions and conclude that the faster an economy drops, the faster it gets back on track. And because this economy fell off a cliff late last fall, they expect it to roar to life early next year. Hence the V shape.

Unfortunately, V-shapers are looking back at the wrong recessions. Focus on those that started with the bursting of a giant speculative bubble and you see slow recoveries. The reason is asset values at bottom are so low that investor confidence returns only gradually.

That's where the more sober U-shapers come in. They predict a more gradual recovery, as investors slowly tiptoe back into the market.

Personally, I don't buy into either camp. In a recession this deep, recovery doesn't depend on investors. It depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the U.S. economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery, V or U shaped.

No recovery, ever? Never, ever? An interestingly pessimistic view from the left side of the ailse. What makes it ever more interesting is that not even 4 months ago, Robert Reich predicted a smooth recovery:

My Recovery Prediction
There's a reason it's called the "business cycle."
Robert B. Reich | March 25, 2009

I've got something of a reputation as an economic soothsayer. Last March I predicted the economy would slide off a cliff in six months. Six months later, it did. How did I know? I'll get to that later. Now, I'm predicting the economy will start to recover in the second quarter of next year.

First, look at the economic fundamentals -- such as historic ratios of home values to rents and incomes and of stock prices to corporate earnings. At the rate houses and stocks are now dropping, they'll be terrific bargains by the middle of next year. Meanwhile, given how fast business inventories are now dropping, firms will probably start rebuilding by then. Business investments in plants and equipment are now nearing a standstill, so by the third quarter of next year companies will need to replace lots of aging equipment. On the consumer side, the sharp falloff in spending on durables means lots of cars and appliances will begin wearing out by the middle of next year.

I guess even 'economic soothsayers' can stop patting themselves on the back long enough to change their predictions.

However I think the best part is Reich's inference in both articles that the economy won't turn around until "consumers" start spending money again. That seems a far cry from the current Democratic mantra that only President Obama's Good-Time, Happy, Nanny State Government® can spend us out of the recession.

To me, it sounds like Reich is making a great case for tax cuts, especially of the payroll variety. No better way in my mind of getting people to start spending more than to immediately put more money in each and every paycheck.

I doubt we will ever hear that out of the mouth of Robert Reich though. It might get him blacklisted from the tony parties in Washington, Manhattan, and Cambridge on the Charles.....

Could Obama Help Turn Indiana Red Again?

"Remember how President Obama blamed Chrysler's bankruptcy filing last month on "a small group of speculators" who turned down Treasury's $2 billion final offer for their $6.9 billion in debt?"

It appears that the list of evil 'speculators' included the likes of retired Indiana State Policemen, retired Indiana Teachers, and Indiana motorists.

Vultures!

Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock revealed this week that his state's police and teacher pension funds have lost millions of dollars in the Chrysler "restructuring." Indiana's State Police Fund and Major Moves Construction Fund, which finances roads and bridges, together lost more than $1 million. And the Teacher's Retirement Fund "suffered, at a minimum, a loss of $4.6 million due to the action of the Federal government," reports Mr. Mourdock.

Attention RNC, NRSC, & NRCC....if you don't go into Indiana with adds that directly link Obama and his 'Gangster Government' tactics to the losses at state pension funds....you would be complete idiots. And don't wait until 2010...start TV ads now.

Indiana used to be a Red State, and only voted for Obama by a little more than 28K votes out of 2.7 mil votes cast. Use his actions that have directly hurt the 'speculators' in Indiana's retired population and turn Indiana RED again....

And you think that Indiana will be the only state where pension funds have been roughed up by the hoods from Pennsylvania Ave, you have been asleep. I am quite sure this could be an effective tactic to elect Senator Giuliani....

Inflation Survival Bleg

We have been hearing a lot recently about inflation storms brewing over the horizon. Worse yet, the storms could in fact become hyperinflation. Many fear that the recent excessive growth in the money supply will make hyperinflation inevitable. Unfortunately I have not seen any major discussions on how individuals handle such events?

Thus, the question I have for anyone who might read this.....

What can the Average Joe (ie average consumer and investor) do *right now* to prepare for the effects of inflation, and even the ravages of hyperinflation???

Are there simple and effective steps to take ahead of time (of which I am seeing nothing reported), or do I need to go to Amazon and buy all the survival books that Instapundit has mentioned recently??

I am a bit worried about the effects of recent action on the future economy, and I don't want to be one of the masses who ask "Why weren't we warned about this?"

Stagnating Stimulus

Remember all those months ago, when it was a life-or-death imperative that Congress and the President just *had* to pass that "Stimulus" bill?

The President stated "The time for talk is over, the time for action is now."

He implied that the rush was needed to stem the tide of job losses:

"This isn't some abstract debate. Last week, we learned that many of America's largest corporations are planning to lay off tens of thousands of workers. Today we learned that last week, the number of new unemployment claims jumped to 626,000. Tomorrow, we're expecting another dismal jobs report on top of the 2.6 million jobs that we lost last year. We've lost half a million jobs each month for the last two months."

So, if this huge spending bill was required quickly to staunch the outflow of jobs....why are the jobs still leaving us 2.5 months after the signing of the bill?? I thought we were going to get jobs as far as the eye could see...

All we have thus far is a bad trend...


One might ask, since we have spent $787 Billion to stimulate the economy (over $1 Trillion after interest)....where's the beef?

Well, one reason that we have not seen improvement as we pass the magical rubicon that is "The Enchanted First 100 Days of the Obama Reign of Benevolence"® is the fact that only $72 Billion of those magical $787 Billion stimulus dollars have been "made available". Less than 10% of the bill's total outlay. Hard to be stimulative at 10¢ on the dollar. However, what is even worse, is that federal agencies have only "Paid Out" ~25% of that $72 Billion.

How do we know this? Because the government's own website tells us so.....



So, as the employment figures slide towards Carter-esque territory, the "Stimulus" bill that we were forced to swallow without debate and without due diligence because we just had to have it right then....is doing nothing towards its alleged goal of "saving or creating 4 million jobs".

Perhaps it is just me, but if this is what "Stimulus" looks like, then maybe we could have at least had a couple more weeks of debate and 'sunshine' before we saddled our kids and grand-kids with unprecedented debt.

A quick summary:
- Economy flounders; Unemployment spikes
- "We start 2009 in the midst of a crisis unlike any we have seen in our lifetime..."
- Unemployment goes up...
- It will be too late "if we don't take dramatic action as soon as possible..."
- "Stimulus" Passes....
- One month later, 0.8% of "Stimulus" funds spent; Unemployment goes up again...
- Two months later, 1.9% of "Stimulus" funds spent; Unemployment continues to go up...

So much for the urgent need for a "Stimulus". Its as if there were some ulterior motive....

This is not the Hope & Change I didn't vote for.....