Redstate has an exhaustive analysis as to why Obama is toast.
"The waterfront of analyzing all the factors that go into my conclusion here is too large to cover in one post, but the signs of Obama’s defeat are too clear now to ignore. Given all the available information – Romney’s lead among independents, the outlier nature of the 2008 turnout model, the elections held since 2008, the party ID surveys, the voter registration, early voting and absentee ballot data – I have to conclude that there is no remaining path at this late date for Obama to win the national popular vote. He is toast."
If you can find a more thoroughly researched piece of election analysis (outside of Keith Backer's BattleGroundWatch), please let me know. Congrats to Dan McGlaughlin on a great effort!