Boston Globe: Coakley Up Big

The big banner above-the-fold headline in today's Boston Globe:
Senate Poll: Coakley up 15 Points
Its like they were trying to send a message...

Of course this contrasts greatly with the just released PPP poll that showed Scott Brown to be leading by 1-point.

Why the difference? Well the Globe poll is a poll of 554 likely-voters, but was conducted from 2-6 January. The PPP poll was made up of 774 likely-voters, and conducted from 7-9 January. Perhaps the PPP poll is more updated due to the very recent phone-bank ops conducted by the Brown campaign.

What is interesting is the political make-up of the Globe Poll. PPP breaks out its respondents as 44% Dem, 39% IND, and 17% GOP. The Globe is 55% Dem, 15% IND, and 28% GOP.

So the Globe immediately has a heavier disposition towards the Dems. Now perhaps their weighting is better than that of PPP, only time will tell.

But the bottom line is that with widely disparate polls like this, one side is going to be extremely dissapointed on Jan 19th....

UPDATE: Jammie Wearing Fool has some related thoughts and a reminder about PPP's last prediction in NY-23.

UPDATE II: Another item I forgot to add originally....the PPP poll does not address an Independent candidate with coincidental name recognition, Joe Kennedy. He gets 5% in the Globe poll....

UPDATE III: William Jacobson of Legal Insurrection calls the Globe Poll "an outlier", and he has been working the phones at Brown HQ, so he has good feel of the pulse in the race...

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